Use of Bayesian Network to Support Risk-Based Analysis of LNG Carrier Loading Operation

This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis of LNG carriers operations aiming at defining the most critical pieces of equipments as for avoiding LNG leakage during loading and unloading operations. The pieces of equipment considered critical for loading and unloading operations are identified and the Cause-Consequence diagram is built. The probability of occurrence of each event listed in the diagram is calculated based on Bayesian network method. The consequences associated with those scenarios are estimated based on literature review. Based on the calculated risk profile some maintenance and operational recommendations are presented aiming at reducing the probability of occurrence of the critical failure scenarios.